[kgr]

This is no special 3NT, but I'm interested in your opinions!
Do you agree with the decisions that I took or is there a better play?

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West leads ♦2: 3rd/5th
1. W: ♦2-6-J-?
Should I duck this or not?

Spoiler

1. W: ♦2-6-J-3
2. E: ♦8-A-4-9 (udca)
I ducked and East returned ♦8. What should I play now?

Spoiler

1. W: ♦2-6-J-3
2. E: ♦8-A-4-9 (udca)
3. S: ♥5-3-J-Q
4. E: ♠A-2-9-6
5. E: ♦5-K-7-?
I played ♥ to the J loosing to the ♥Q.
East first played ♠A and then a small ♦.
What should I discard from dummy?

Spoiler

No idea what if ♣ or ♠ discard is best here. It wasn't clear if East (Jack) had ♠K or not.
What should I discard and how should I continue?

[CSGibson]

I need two more tricks outside of my 7 tops. It looks like the best shots at that are hearts 3-3 (or Tx) or clubs 3-3, since it is approximately a 75% chance that RHO has a spade honor, and diamonds look to be 5-3. I am going to win the 2nd diamond (2nd because if they switch I am thrilled) and lead a small heart to the J. I am going to make sure to keep a spade guard, but I am not discarding a club from dummy, since that can also be my 9th trick. I am going to cash clubs first on the chance that LHO has 4+ clubs, marking it as a better play to finesse the T on the way back.

Also, E's Ace in the middle of a hand ostensibly denies the K. He's probably just cashing it in an attempt to take quick tricks - this says to me that he doesn't think he can be patient, that one of the rounded suits is splitting.

[kgr]

thanks Chris!

CSGibson, on 2013-February-12, 12:52, said:

I need two more tricks outside of my 7 tops. It looks like the best shots at that are hearts 3-3 (or Tx) or clubs 3-3, since it is approximately a 75% chance that RHO has a spade honor, and diamonds look to be 5-3. I am going to win the 2nd diamond (2nd because if they switch I am thrilled) and lead a small heart to the J. I am going to make sure to keep a spade guard, but I am not discarding a club from dummy, since that can also be my 9th trick. I am going to cash clubs first on the chance that LHO has 4+ clubs, marking it as a better play to finesse the T on the way back.

Also, E's Ace in the middle of a hand ostensibly denies the K. He's probably just cashing it in an attempt to take quick tricks - this says to me that he doesn't think he can be patient, that one of the rounded suits is splitting.

I played this the same, but was less convinced about ♠K, certainly with West discouraging with ♠9 (from ♠K9).
LHO had:
♠K9
♥63
♦QT742
♣J983

BTW: running 1000 samples analysis:
Trick 1: Jack slightly prefers to take ♦K
Trick 3: Jack slightly prefers a ♣ (followed by running ♥J) over a ♥ to the J.
Trick 5: Jack prefers to discard a ♣ rather than a ♠

[PhilKing]

kgr, on 2013-February-13, 16:40, said:

BTW: running 1000 samples analysis:
Trick 1: Jack slightly prefers to take ♦K
Trick 3: Jack slightly prefers a ♣ (followed by running ♥J) over a ♥ to the J.
Trick 5: Jack prefers to discard a ♣ rather than a ♠

Jack is presumably running a DD analysis for each sample, potentially based on flawed assumptions, so it does not follow that the line is correct.

[nige1]

Duplicate Sorry

[nige1]

kgr writes "This is no special 3NT, but I'm interested in your opinions! Do you agree with the decisions that I took or is there a better play?
West leads ♦2: 3rd/5th
I ducked and East returned ♦8. What should I play now?
I played ♥ to the J loosing to the ♥Q.
East first played ♠A and then a small ♦.
What should I discard from dummy?
LHO had: ♠ K9 ♥ 63 ♦ QT742 ♣ J983"

IMO, kgr played well. Unblocking ♥J is a good idea, no matter which opponent plays ♥J.
Later, he may guess to finesse ♥9 when LHO turns up with four ♣ as well as ♦ length.

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