OGUST or Feature Showing (or is there something better?)
#21
Posted 2013-July-04, 01:49
#22
Posted 2013-July-04, 02:08
32519, on 2013-July-04, 01:42, said:
And it still is not a Weak 2 opening...any more than a Swedish or Polish Club is a weak NT. Nor is 2♣ = weak with diamonds or GF a Weak 2 opening. Note also that you still have some leeway over a Multi. As Adam already wrote, the most important piece of information is whether the opening is good or bad. A typical set of responses to 2NT after a multi shows this directly. After 2♦ - 2NT; 3m, you can also use the "in-between" step as a further ask if you want, either for suit quality (Ogust) or asking for a shortage. Many also play a 2♠ response as invitational in hearts with Opener rebids showing shortage. Obviously you have effectively less space after a Multi 2♦ opening and 2NT response than the equivalent Weak 2 auctions - you have twice as many hand types to show - but it is not as if you have no space at all.
As for shortage asks being unplayable - tell that to the World Class pairs that do use them. I am sure your maths will impress them greatly. Schemes that address the issue you are raising have already been posted.
#23
Posted 2013-July-04, 02:09
32519, on 2013-July-04, 01:49, said:
Quote
I'm not convinced you have thought about what you wrote. At least one of these numbers is clearly nonsensical.
#24
Posted 2013-July-04, 02:27
sfi, on 2013-July-04, 02:09, said:
Don't worry about it. I directed 32519 to Chris Ryall's statistics page a month or so ago. A 6-10 Weak 2 in a major alone has a 3% probability. Just ignore any numbers posted here.
#25
Posted 2013-July-04, 03:48
Zelandakh, on 2013-July-04, 02:27, said:
Zel, you're hell bent on placing more reliance on an external source (external to BBO). Guess what? I am hell bent on placing more reliance on BBOs deal generator. You can test it for yourself.
1. Set up a "Teaching Table."
2. Click on "Deal Source."
3. Pick any hand.
4. Fill in the constraints.
...a) Number of ♠ = 6-13
......Number of HCP = 5-11
......Click on "Odds" = 2.97% X 3 = 8.91%
...b) Now add the following constraint as well
......Number of ♣ = 0-1
......Click on "Odds" = 0.77% X 3 = 2.31%
I stand by my post. I don't believe Shortage Ask is playable!
#26
Posted 2013-July-04, 03:52
32519, on 2013-July-04, 03:48, said:
1. Set up a "Teaching Table."
2. Click on "Deal Source."
3. Pick any hand.
4. Fill in the constraints.
...a) Number of ♠ = 6-13
......Number of HCP = 5-11
......Click on "Odds" = 2.97% X 3 = 8.91%
...b) Now add the following constraint as well
......Number of ♣ = 0-1
......Click on "Odds" = 0.77% X 3 X3 = 6.93%
I stand by my post. I don't believe Shortage Ask is playable!
FYP. You can have a six-card in three suits and the singleton in any of the three remaining suits, so you should multiply by 3x3=9, not by 3.
Technicalities aside you should know intuitively that something close to this must be correct. Is it really your experience that three quarters of all 6-baggers are 6322?
There are three 322 and three 331 distributions, and six 430 and six 421. But some 6430 and 6421 hands may be too flawed, especially if the 4-card suit is a major.
#27
Posted 2013-July-04, 03:57
2D(multi)-2N:
3C/D: minimum with H/S.
3H/S: max with H/S (some reverse this).
...3C/D-3D/H asks if it's a good suit compared to the rest of their hand.
#28
Posted 2013-July-04, 04:00
32519, on 2013-July-03, 22:49, said:
That's not strictly true.
I give up a 3♣ response, which now shows specifically a game try in partner's major.
This frees up 2NT as a GF relay, over which more accurate definition can be obtained.
#29
Posted 2013-July-04, 04:07
32519, on 2013-July-04, 03:48, said:
1. Set up a "Teaching Table."
2. Click on "Deal Source."
3. Pick any hand.
4. Fill in the constraints.
...a) Number of ♠ = 6-13
......Number of HCP = 5-11
......Click on "Odds" = 2.97% X 3 = 8.91%
...b) Now add the following constraint as well
......Number of ♣ = 0-1
......Click on "Odds" = 0.77% X 3 = 2.31%
I stand by my post. I don't believe Shortage Ask is playable!
You need a basic lesson on probability. What that odds gave you was the probability that you have 5-11 HCP AND 6 spades AND 0-1 clubs. You should be dividing by the probability of having 5-11HCP and 6 spades (2.97%), or in technical terms P(0-1C|5-11HCP&6S). That gives you an actual probability of 25.926% for a singleton club.
The real percentage is slightly lower because of some freak distributions.
edit: numbers wrong, I put it in as 6-13 spades.
reedit: ok, did it properly this time, according to BBO hand generator, 5-11HCP and 6 spades is 2.38%, and 0-1 clubs added on is 0.57% giving a true probability of 23.95% (minus whatever for the "freaks"). Now multiply that by 3 for any singleton, and that becomes 71.85%
#30
Posted 2013-July-04, 04:54
#31
Posted 2013-July-04, 06:00
fromageGB, on 2013-July-04, 04:54, said:
This may be true, but personally I have found the real value of shortage ask is when partner (the 2nt bidder) holds something like xxx in a suit - opposite a shortage a thin game can be bid because we know our values are concentrated with the longer suits. If I show a feature in a different suit over his 2NT bid he is still left wondering about his xxx.
#32
Posted 2013-July-04, 06:07
Phil352, on 2013-July-04, 06:00, said:
If that is what you needed for game, then 2NT was an overbid.
#33
Posted 2013-July-04, 07:16
Phil352, on 2013-July-04, 06:00, said:
I used to believe this, but then I realised that I'd never actually experienced this advantage. The hands where it occurs are rare, and when they occur you don't usually have enough for 2NT, and the opponents may be in the bidding anyway. And while we're waiting for the right deal to come along, we're leaking information on all the other deals where we don't care about singletons but we do care about overall strength.
In fact, the only reason I ever played a singleton ask was because Phil King had told me it was best, in about 1988.
#34
Posted 2013-July-04, 07:19
helene_t, on 2013-July-04, 03:52, said:
Yeah, but you can't have them at the same time. Playing weak twos, you can have a six-card suit at ANY ONE TIME and the singleton in any of the remaining suits.
#35
Posted 2013-July-04, 07:22
#36
Posted 2013-July-04, 07:30
Zelandakh, on 2013-July-04, 02:27, said:
Turns out you can lead a horse to water...
#37
Posted 2013-July-04, 07:32
32519, on 2013-July-04, 07:22, said:
What everyone is saying is you're not interpreting the numbers correctly. As I said, you have about a 2.38% chance of getting dealt 6 spades and 5-11HCP. But once you make your bid showing that, then the probability of you having it is 100%, and you need to scale your other percentages accordingly.
32519, on 2013-July-04, 07:19, said:
I don't think Helene really explained it properly. It's not really so much as you need to multiply the singletons by 9, more that you shouldn't have multiplied the 6 card suit percentage by 3 (if you open 2S, you don't have 6 hearts or diamonds), but if you insist in doing so, then you must multiply the singletons by 3 (3 singletons to go with each suit)
#38
Posted 2013-July-04, 07:35
As for tv, screw it. You aren't missing anything. -- Ken Berg
I have come to realise it is futile to expect or hope a regular club game will be run in accordance with the laws. -- Jillybean
#39
Posted 2013-July-04, 08:00
The OP asked about weak twos: this probably should include multi weak twos but is unclear in the question.
#40
Posted 2013-July-04, 11:34
blackshoe, on 2013-July-04, 07:35, said:
This is not strictly true. It is common to talk about "holding a weak two in spades" even when you are not playing an opening weak two. Similarly people talk about holding a weak NT or an Acol Two even if they do not include these among their opening bids.