[patroclo]

---

west start with Q♠

[TWO4BRIDGE]

Win Ace.
♣J next... as the only hope, albeit slim, of getting 2 tricks in ♣ for a ♠ pitch .

[patroclo]

TWO4BRIDGE, on 2013-August-20, 11:37, said:

Win Ace.
♣J next... as the only hope, albeit slim, of getting 2 tricks in ♣ for a ♠ pitch .

East cover J♣with Q ♣

[mikeh]

I don't understand N's bid, but maybe we're playing a big club method where the game raise can deliver a hand this strong.

Back to the problem. It is possible, I suppose, that RHO has only 1 or 2 spades and LHO no entry, but that doesn't help us anyway, since we can't then set up a pitch nor create an endplay: rho won't hold short spades and the stiff diamond A!

At mps, I'd be very reluctant to risk down 2 since this seems like a fairly normal, if unlucky, contract. Down 1 will probably be average or so.

At imps, it is worth risking 3 imps, for -100 against an easy -50, in order to win 10, but only by the most slender of margins.

We are going to play for a 1=3 shot: the KQ clubs onside.

We lead the club J and duck the cover.

We win the presumed spade play and lead a club to the 10.

Note that this isn't actually even as good as 1=3. While LHO probably doesn't have a stiff club, he may have a doubleton. If so, then unless he has a void in trump or the stiff A, then he ruffs low on the 3rd round.

I don't know the odds that the club play works: only that the odds are slightly less than 25% and that we break even, playing for down one, if the odds drop to about 23% I don't think they do, so I make the play.

[Fluffy]

mikeh, on 2013-August-20, 13:00, said:

I don't understand N's bid, but maybe we're playing a big club method where the game raise can deliver a hand this strong.

Back to the problem. It is possible, I suppose, that RHO has only 1 or 2 spades and LHO no entry, but that doesn't help us anyway, since we can't then set up a pitch nor create an endplay: rho won't hold short spades and the stiff diamond A!

At mps, I'd be very reluctant to risk down 2 since this seems like a fairly normal, if unlucky, contract. Down 1 will probably be average or so.

At imps, it is worth risking 3 imps, for -100 against an easy -50, in order to win 10, but only by the most slender of margins.

We are going to play for a 1=3 shot: the KQ clubs onside.

We lead the club J and duck the cover.

We win the presumed spade play and lead a club to the 10.

Note that this isn't actually even as good as 1=3. While LHO probably doesn't have a stiff club, he may have a doubleton. If so, then unless he has a void in trump or the stiff A, then he ruffs low on the 3rd round.

I don't know the odds that the club play works: only that the odds are slightly less than 25% and that we break even, playing for down one, if the odds drop to about 23% I don't think they do, so I make the play.

I think the same as you, at MPs I wouldn't risk 2 down. At IMPs ducking the cover sounds best, however your odds are failing to take into account that a ♣KQ lead might be chosen over a ♠QJ one. Opponent's preferences of leads often surprise me.

[Cyberyeti]

TWO4BRIDGE, on 2013-August-20, 11:37, said:

Win Ace.
♣J next... as the only hope, albeit slim, of getting 2 tricks in ♣ for a ♠ pitch .

if you're going to do this, you play small to the 10 because otherwise you can fail if they cover as patroclo says.

[gszes]

please dont let anyone elses eyes bleed

I deleted mine )))))))))))))))))))))))))

[Cyberyeti]

gszes, on 2013-August-20, 15:04, said:

playing small toward the T is a tiny tiny tiny better play since it not only caters to
KQ clubs onside but a stiff club honor and a singleton trump ace with rho. The
play on the clubs is your only chance and only at IMPS I agree with all others
that would accept down one at MP rather than going for small % shot at game.

You miss the point, how are you getting back to dummy to lead the second club if you lead the J initially, you fail to KQ onside as your only way back to dummy is with a spade which means there's a spade to cash when in with the other club. If you lead small and RHO splits, you can then play small to the J.

[johnu]

Cyberyeti, on 2013-August-20, 15:19, said:

You miss the point, how are you getting back to dummy to lead the second club if you lead the J initially, you fail to KQ onside as your only way back to dummy is with a spade which means there's a spade to cash when in with the other club. If you lead small and RHO splits, you can then play small to the J.

After RHO wins the ♣J and returns a spade, how do you get back to your hand to cash the good club?

[Cyberyeti]

johnu, on 2013-August-20, 16:36, said:

After RHO wins the ♣J and returns a spade, how do you get back to your hand to cash the good club?

This is also true if you're trying this, you have to lead the jack and duck the club that covers, not doing that at pairs and not really sure I want to do it in a tight teams match either.

[PhilKing]

My eyes are literally bleeding. Can the guilty please delete their posts?

[TWO4BRIDGE]

patroclo, on 2013-August-20, 12:30, said:

East cover J♣with Q ♣

Duck .
If East then returns another ♠, you lead the ♣ to your A 10 , playing East for the K .

If East returns a ♦, you will still win on the board for the ♣ lead, unless West puts up the Ace.
In that case you will get a losing ♠ pitch on the long ♦.

Once the ♠ loser is taken care of, only then can you start trumps ( ♥ ).

EDIT: I corrected the misprinted "loser" to ♠ .

[mikeh]

PhilKing, on 2013-August-20, 17:09, said:

My eyes are literally bleeding. Can the guilty please delete their posts?

I literally don't believe you.

I figuratively get what you say

[patroclo]

the hand

---

[rhm]

mikeh, on 2013-August-20, 13:00, said:

I don't understand N's bid, but maybe we're playing a big club method where the game raise can deliver a hand this strong.

If you have 9 tricks with little chance to play for ten opposite what many would consider nowadays a sound opening and neither much duplication, how great can your chances be for 12 tricks?
Laying a trap for the opponents to step in works not only for big clubbers.
Being white there is something to be said to make only a limit raise with the North hand

Rainer Herrmann

[gnasher]

rhm, on 2013-August-21, 03:26, said:

Being white there is something to be said to make only a limit raise with the North hand

Quite a lot to be said for it, in fact. If opener isn't balanced he will nearly always accept a game invitation, so for constructive purposes the raise to 4♥ mainly caters for a 5332 minimum. With two 5332 shapes you often find that there's duplication, and that queens and jacks aren't pulling their weight.

[gnasher]

mikeh, on 2013-August-20, 13:00, said:

At imps, it is worth risking 3 imps, for -100 against an easy -50, in order to win 10, but only by the most slender of margins.
...
we break even, playing for down one, if the odds drop to about 23%

Assuming they're in game at the other table, the cost of an extra undertrick is is two IMPs, so the threshold is
   2 / (2 + 10) = 16%

If they're in a partscore on the same lead, it's slightly lower. The cost is one IMP (-240 instead of -190), and the gain is seven, so the threshold is
   1 / 7 = 14%

[TWO4BRIDGE]

PhilKing, on 2013-August-20, 17:09, said:

My eyes are literally bleeding. Can the guilty please delete their posts?

Hope you weren't including my post # 2 which was a precursor to my brilliant conclusion ( if I must say so myself ) in post # 12 .

[PhilKing]

TWO4BRIDGE, on 2013-August-21, 06:47, said:

Hope you weren't including my post # 2 which was a precursor to my brilliant conclusion ( if I must say so myself ) in post # 12 .

Post #2 was fine, if a trifle ambiguous.