dake50, on 2013-December-06, 11:14, said:
4♠ was an idiotic bid. Partner has what appears to be at most two cover cards for you -- the diamond Queen and the heart King. If that is enough for game, he is expecting a 5-loser hand. With most 5-loser hands, you would blast game yourself anyway, so his take is already suspect.
But, let's assume a 5-loser hand that is poor on HCP's. This is usually a 5-5 holding. Something like your hand with an extra diamond and one fewer club or heart and probably not the club Queen. If you have that hand, the heart King is only potentially useful if you have short clubs. So, that King is only worth a 50-50 trick 50% of the time, or 25% of a trick. Plus, it is a less useful trick because it does not support some other diamond card or spade card in your hand needing support. Compare how more useful the diamond or spade King would be in protecting and growing up your hypothetical spade or diamond Queen or Jack. Thus, the heart King may well force another finesse in one of your two suits frequently and might instead by 12.5% or 20% of a trick.
Plus, if partner wants to be a lunatic and encourage you further, he always has a hedging 3♥ option over your 3♦, whether that for you is game last train or a card, either of which works this time.
The solution, then, is not so much systemic as CHO judgment. -- kenrexford
*** How many of SA +HAK +DQ +CAK might a single raise cover??
I'm assuming most of those that do have more than a single raise 12.
Or does no "super 12" (I got 3 tricks for you) exist by some other start?
A wide-ranging single raise should/must have a less than a three sure tricks top.
Something else for such good stuff.
I never addressed whether the game try was or was not correct, instead focusing solely on the acceptance with Responder's hand.
That said, if you are suggesting that 3
♦ was too aggressive because partner cannot have three cover cards, it seems fairly easy to see that
♠A,
♦Q,
♣K works well, as few would deem a 9-count a limit raise, especially if 4-3-3-3.
Plus, your observation is that "a wide-ranging single raise should/must have less than a three sure tricks top." Suppose that I agree. The stray diamond Queen is hardly a third sure trick, especially if doubleton. (If the club Queen for Opener is dubious, same for partner?) Thus, any combination of Aces and Kings plus the diamond Queen should work, eh? This of course is why the 3
♦ call seems spot-on, identifying the one card that might not be known to be a sure trick as now worth something substantial.
"Gibberish in, gibberish out. A trial judge, three sets of lawyers, and now three appellate judges cannot agree on what this law means. And we ask police officers, prosecutors, defense lawyers, and citizens to enforce or abide by it? The legislature continues to write unreadable statutes. Gibberish should not be enforced as law."
-P.J. Painter.