[inquiry]

Let's make this an IMP's hand (real life, it was matchpoints). This is the first of a new series on defensive play. This hand was recently posted in another thread that might not have gotten many views. To make it a little more interesting, I have shown the opening leaders hand rather than the third seat hand.

This doesn't requires expert defense, but certainly the card reading and inferential count in required. To make it consistent, this and the future problems in this series will include:
1: Upside down count and attitude
2: Frequent suit preference signals
3: Standard leads

I don't know if this helps, but regards of which heart you play, partner plays the ♥9 (high spot card, presumably showing odd number... )

Hopefully, the rational for the defense will be fairly clear. To see the first two tricks and the lead to the trick three, click the NEXT button a few times.

---

[silvr bull]

Spoiler

I think the danger here is that South could have CQxx, so a C lead from West is fatal. If I thought a D would cash, I would win the HA, cash the DK, and exit with the HQ to let South play the Cs. However, the only reason South would play a low D from dummy at trick 1 is if he had a stiff DA. I will play the low H first, and hope declarer wins the HK (or the H8 on a very good day ). That will give me the exit cards I need to avoid leading a C.

[silvr bull]

Strange. I tried to vote, but I get an "internal server error" and my vote (to show only two hands) is not recorded. Maybe I need more posts to be permitted to have an opinion.

[kenberg]

Can I make anything of partner's ♠3? Declarer very nicely, why I don't know, showed me that he is holding the AKQ of trump. [Added: OK, maybe declarer is 5=2=1=5 with the spades headed by the KQ. Could be, i guess.] Can I trust that partner, holding three spots, would play the spots high low? As Silvr says, I am certainly playing declarer for the stiff diamond ace, surely he plays the Q at T1 if the ace is not stiff.

If I can be sure from partner's spade deuce that declarer holds six spades then I have to worry that declarer's ten tricks are six spades, two hearts, one diamond, one club. This is going to be tough if partner does not have the ♣Q. Let's be very optimistic and assume that partner's spade spots are the 7,3 so that there is no entry to the dummy via trump. Still.

I have to choose my heart play at T3 before I see partner's count card. I doubt I can stop him from getting two heart tricks if he has three cards so I assume he has two. I will soon find out, but at T2, before partner's play, I assume partner is the one who has three. I suppose that declarer will put in the ten if I play low, and if I play the Ace, declarer can come to hand, lead another heart, and when I split he takes it leads another, establishing a heart trick for a club pitch. So I guess I play the ♥ Q at T3. But I don't see this working either. Declarer takes the K, ruffs the ♦Q, draws the last trump, and leads a heart. I take one of my hearts and do what? A diamond gives a sluff/ruff, a club gives hm two club tricks assuming that he has the Q, a heart establishes a heart trick on the board with the club as an entry.


Maybe I am missing something but it seems to me that the key to the defense is the count in spades. If declarer has only five spades, contrary to partner's card at T1, I have some options . If he has six spades I think I need partner to have the club Q.

Added: At T3, i could assume that declarer, with his six spades, has made an error. If I hop up with the ♥A at T3, and return the Q, while partner still has a trump, he can not now establish a heart. If he leads a third heart tossing a club as I win, I lead a last heart and partner ruffs. This does require that partner's spade spots are the 7,3 since if they are, say, the 9,3 then declarer at T4, after he takes my ♥Q, can draw the last trump, return to dummy by leading the 7 to the 8, play a heart tossing a club, and then get back to the now good heart via the club K.
The main problem with this line, besides needing a very specific trump holding from partner, is that I cannot see why declarer did not draw a second round of trump.

[kenberg]

OK, I was thinking of this while I was out. I cannot imagine why declarer would not draw trump if he could, so I assume he cannot. This gives pard AJx in trump. It also gives declarer five clubs and so partner has two. Let's hope they are either JT or better.

If I believe this, I guess I go up with the ace of hearts and continue with the Q. He takes this, leads a spade from the board, partner goes up with the Ace and leads a third heart that declarer must ruff. Declarer draws the last trump, and is down to one trump. He leads a club to the king and and a club from the board, partner playing the T and then the J. Declarer cannot duck, since partner can lead a diamond, taking the last trump in his hand, after which he would ruff a club to the board and concede a heart to me. If declarer plays the Q on the J, I cash my 9.

So: If I have this right, I have to decide early on whether declarer has five spades to the KQ or six to the AKQ. In the latter case. partner needs the ♣ Qxx for us to beat this and we need to get going on cashing it. If declarer started with ♠ KQxxx , partner needs JT and I need to lay off the clubs. Since I really think he would have cashed a second spade if he had six, I guess I am going with declarer having five. I am not quite sure though why partner did not take the first spade and lead a diamond.


Btw, declarer does not have five spades to the AKQ two hearts, ♦ A and five clubs. . If so, the play would be ♦A, three rounds of spades, start on clubs. We could force him once with a diamond continuation, but on the next club he can ruff a diamond on the board. So if he has five spades, the Q held at T2, and he does not continue, he is missing the Ace.

[billw55]

First thought: what is declarer doing? He is willing to pass out 2♠, but then raises 3 to 4. Next he fails to play the ♦Q at trick one, then draws only one round of trump with the Q. If I am to take him honestly, I give him ♠AKQxxxx and the stiff ♦A. That might already be worth raising 2♠, but maybe he thinks differently. At any rate, he cannot have anything else, so I give him five spot cards in the round suits. With both kings in dummy, collecting four tricks looks difficult. Perhaps I can hope that he holds ♥xxx and ♣Jx. In this case, if I hop up A♥ and play a low club, he could misguess - something he cannot do on his own. Plus, creating a losing option is a cool theme for a problem. Unfortunately, this is not in the poll choices so I must have something wrong

edit: meh, this is not really very possible. Ken's idea why declarer stopped drawing trump is much better.

[inquiry]

billw55, on 2014-May-07, 12:39, said:

First thought: what is declarer doing? He is willing to pass out 2♠, but then raises 3 to 4. Next he fails to play the ♦Q at trick one, then draws only one round of trump with the Q. If I am to take him honestly, I give him ♠AKQxxxx and the stiff ♦A. That might already be worth raising 2♠, but maybe he thinks differently. At any rate, he cannot have anything else, so I give him five spot cards in the round suits. With both kings in dummy, collecting four tricks looks difficult. Perhaps I can hope that he holds ♥xxx and ♣Jx. In this case, if I hop up A♥ and play a low club, he could misguess - something he cannot do on his own. Plus, creating a losing option is a cool theme for a problem. Unfortunately, this is not in the poll choices so I must have something wrong

edit: meh, this is not really very possible. Ken's idea why declarer stopped drawing trump is much better.

I thought I included win heart ace, switch to a low club after win heart ace then switch to club ace. Typed it too fast. I guess I should void all votes and let people vote again.... anyway, the win heart ace and then switch to a low club is now included. It really should have been there from the beginning.

[kenberg]

On the auction there is no chance he will play partner for the ♣ A. He might not be 100% certain, but if forced to guess he will place it with W. Say you go up with the ♥A. it is stipulated that E will give count, and show an odd number. So, after you rise and the trick is complete, you now know declarer started with two, not three, hearts.

So continue the Q. He cannot now play the the ten and toss a club. If he tries that you win the J you continue the suit and partner ruffs out the established 8. He overruffs but with his six spades, two hearts and one diamond he had four clubs, one tossed on the heart. If two club tricks were ever available they still are.

So I can't see him playing it this way with AKQxxx of spades. It wouldn't work. Drawing the second trump and then leading a heart could work. Now if I rise with the Ace and continue either the ♥ Q or the ♦ K he makes it.

For his line of play, I am thinking he must be 5=2=1=5. KQTxxx / xx / A / Qxxxx maybe. It's just barely possible that he would go on to 4♠ after figuring North's 3♠ showed a fourth spade and a non-minimum. A bit insane maybe but one way or another, he decided to go on.

Anyway, that's what I am playing him for.

[kenberg]

billw55, on 2014-May-07, 12:39, said:

edit: meh, this is not really very possible. Ken's idea why declarer stopped drawing trump is much better.

overlapping posts. .

It still does not really explain why partner, if he holds AJx in spades, did not take his Ace at T2 and lead a diamond. Not that it does a lot of good, it just makes everything a little clearer.

[silvr bull]

South could have started with AKQxxxx 7652 A x, and we must win 3 ♥ tricks plus the ♣A to beat this contract. South expects West to have 4 ♥ (including the ace), and East to have a singleton, but he doesn't know which card East has as a stiff ♥. After pulling both trump with the ♠Q, South leads the ♥5 to see what card West will play. South may know that many opps, including all of the ones who responded to this BBO forum poll, will rise with an honor if they started with ♥AQJ4, and South can be sure to make 2 ♥ tricks whenever South does play an honor. But consider South's problem when I play the ♥4 first instead. South doesn't know that I cannot respond to this poll (because I get an Internal Server Error), so he assumes that I did not start with ♥AQJ4. The two most likely alternatives are that I played the ♥4 from AQ94 or from AJ94. With either of those two possibilities, South will do best to rise with the ♥K to smother East's stiff ♥quack. Then our 4 defensive tricks are automatic.

South could also play the ♥8 first to finesse against my "known" ♥9, but that will not let us defeat 4♠. After East recovers from the shock of winning that trick with his singleton ♥9, he will lead a ♦ which South will ruff, and then South will shift his focus to the ♣K for his 10th trick.

[StevenG]

silvr bull, on 2014-May-08, 03:18, said:

South could have started with AKQxxxx 7652 A x

... and passed a raise to 2♠?

[kenberg]

Also, with 7=4=1=1 surely the play would go ♦ A, ♠ A , club. You cannot stop declarer from getting seven spades and one trick in each of the other suits this way. Declarer will not be confused about where the aces are.

[inquiry]

I agree with the poll result that showing all four seat positions make the defensive problems much clearer. I recommend that unless we can find some way to improve the two position view so it is clear like this, that we always show all four positions like this. IT is simple, just don't put any cards in the two of the four positions. you can still play cards from the hands without cards by using the play card (pc) command.

kenberg, on 2014-May-07, 11:33, said:

OK, I was thinking of this while I was out. I cannot imagine why declarer would not draw trump if he could, so I assume he cannot. This gives pard AJx in trump. It also gives declarer five clubs and so partner has two. Let's hope they are either JT or better.

billw55, on 2014-May-07, 12:39, said:

First thought: what is declarer doing? He is willing to pass out 2♠, but then raises 3 to 4. Next he fails to play the ♦Q at trick one, then draws only one round of trump with the Q. If I am to take him honestly, I give him ♠AKQxxxx and the stiff ♦A. That might already be worth raising 2♠, but maybe he thinks differently. At any rate, he cannot have anything else, so I give him five spot cards in the round suits. With both kings in dummy, collecting four tricks looks difficult. Perhaps I can hope that he holds ♥xxx and ♣Jx. In this case, if I hop up A♥ and play a low club, he could misguess - something he cannot do on his own. Plus, creating a losing option is a cool theme for a problem. Unfortunately, this is not in the poll choices so I must have something wrong

edit: meh, this is not really very possible. Ken's idea why declarer stopped drawing trump is much better.

Ken was on the right track but had a small blind spot. Billw55 got it right, but sadly, I left the correct answer out of the original quiz options. This was board one of the last weeks BBO individual and in the write up in the thread on that event I gave this hand and discussed the correct defense of ducking the first spade as east from AJx and that it would be fairly tough for West to find the winning play on the first round of hearts.

The logic involved is the card counting bill and Ken did here. Once they place declarer with a singleton diamond, and on the first round of hearts, they might reach the conclusion that partner has a doubleton club and the hoped for ♠AJx. The correct defense on that card reading doesn't as ken proposes require partner to have the ♣JT. Any doubleton will do. Win the ♥Ace and exit a low club. Partner will grab the ♠Ace, return a club to your Ace and enjoy a club ruff.

Bill gets full credit for my slip up in posting the answers (really, I knew he right answer, check the other thread... to see it from Sunday. I was just as careless posting the quiz as I was playing this hand where I won the first trump dooming the defense. The full hand is....

It should be clear why East has to duck the ♠Ace, now, and why if you play trump echo or something with three trumps, East can't afford to use that signal now (East would just continue spades if you play the ♠Jack under the queen).

---

[billw55]

Ben, you can't possibly say I got this right, my analysis was wildly inaccurate and arriving at the winning play was blind luck.

[inquiry]

billw55, on 2014-May-08, 10:03, said:

Ben, you can't possibly say I got this right, my analysis was wildly inaccurate and arriving at the winning play was blind luck.

Well, it would have worked at the table...

It is very counter-intuitive to lead away from the club ace.

[kenberg]

I just quickly responded and I am deleting, but I think you are n ot beating this.
I will look more carefully later.

[kenberg]

inquiry, on 2014-May-08, 10:17, said:

Well, it would have worked at the table...

It is very counter-intuitive to lead away from the club ace.

Oh, I see, a third round club ruff. Right.Quite possibly we should get this right.Once we see that declarer is 5-5, it's "obvious". In the post mortem sense of the word.

This qualifies as something that in retrospect I believe I should have got, but I am not exactly amazed to find that I did not.