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another "to bid or not to bid" prob

Poll: another "to bid or not to bid" prob (26 member(s) have cast votes)

Bid?

  1. pass (18 votes [69.23%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 69.23%

  2. dbl (2 votes [7.69%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 7.69%

  3. 5C (6 votes [23.08%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 23.08%

  4. other?? (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

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#1 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-December-01, 03:09

Matchpoints


Dbl would be take-outish. Doesn't promise 4-card diamond 100% of the time but sure got points.

Considerable extras here. Will you call for them or let it be?
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#2 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-December-01, 03:59

I pass of course. Takeout to what?
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#3 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2014-December-01, 04:28

View Postwhereagles, on 2014-December-01, 03:09, said:

Matchpoints


Dbl would be take-outish. Doesn't promise 4-card diamond 100% of the time but sure got points.

Considerable extras here. Will you call for them or let it be?
IMO Pass = 10, Double = 7. If the auction is to be believed, your hand is worth little.
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#4 User is offline   WesleyC 

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Posted 2014-December-01, 07:34

I think Double is clear.

Partner's most likely holding is a weak hand with both minors and the cards sit very nicely for the opponents. Partner will recognize that Red vs White @ MPs, most opponents tend to have their bids and also that we can afford to go -3 vs their making game so his default action over my double should be to pull rather than to pass.

And as a bonus, partner will sometimes be dealt [x xxx Axxxx xxxx] or a couple of natural trump tricks in which case we'll get a great score.
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#5 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2014-December-01, 10:56

I understand that the OP stated that the double of 4 is "takeoutish," but I don't believe that it should be. I could have a good hand with a couple of heart tricks sitting behind declarer. If I wanted to bid, I could bid 4NT.

This is not the same as 1 - (2) - P - (4). When 4th seat bids 4, the opponents do not have to have a fit, and I could very easily have a strong balanced hand with enough stuff to guarantee that the opponents are not going to make.

I suspect that many will play this double for takeout, but it really shouldn't be for takeout. In my experience, there are a lot of pairs that overbid both hands on this auction and we should be able to punish them (even at this vulnerability).

I would pass and hope that we beat 4.
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#6 User is offline   Lord Molyb 

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Posted 2014-December-01, 10:59

I would expect X to be penalty and 4NT takeout for the minors.

I can only count 2-3 tricks opposite the expected hand for my partner so I pass, hoping we can beat it.
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#7 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-December-01, 13:05

If "takeoutish" makes you itchy, try "DSIP dbl" (do something intelligent partner).
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#8 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2014-December-01, 13:15

If required to guess as to the likely situation here, I would guess that they are likely to make the contract. I would also guess that our trick expectation in 5 would be about 8 or 9, so that the 'save' would seem like a good proposition.

However, I see essentially zero chance that we can make anything, and some modest chance of a plus on defence. Further, I see little chance that partner will guess correctly should we make that bizarrely described 'takeoutish' double. [/rant]Wtf does that mean, when we have 4N as a clear takeout call?

Never use two calls, in the same auction, for the same purpose. If 4N is takeout, and surely it is, double, whatever one wants it to mean, cannot, in any rational method, be takeout.

It can be pure penalty, or it can be 'hand ownership.....transferable values', but it cannot be 'takeout'.

The problem here is that my hand isn't either. Our KQ of spades is arguably of zero value on defence, and our clubs are too long to be sure of 2 winners, and our diamonds may be a single trick. At the same time, we have a horrible dummy for diamonds unless partner has a lot more of them than we are entitled to expect. I would double with something like AJxx xx AQx AKxx.

A side note: in another recent post, a double of 3 was described by Nuno as 'penaltyish'. The actual hand showed that the doubler held a classic penalty double, but several posters here, perhaps misled by the description, pulled with what seemed to me to be an easy pass.

I think that the OP and his partners need to have better, clearer, understandings of what their doubles mean.[rant/]

As a result, I think that at imps, where size of swing is paramount, pass is clear. At mps, I might bid 5. In real life I tend to talk myself out of such unilateral actions, but I do think that 5 will outscore pass by a small margin, on a frequency basis.
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#9 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-December-01, 14:53

oh I totally agree that clear dbl agreements would be helpful. Thing is, real life gets in the way.
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#10 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2014-December-01, 18:18

5c

MP one board come on live a little:) 4h was surely bid to make and
our hand strongly suggests there is a very good chance it will. We do
not wish to make any form of TOX (either x or 4n depending on style)
because we plain outright do not want p taking a dia preference with
42 53 64 etc etc.

There is a fair chance p has a club fit with us and we might even be
able to ruff spade losers. Make?? not likely but I like the odds of
avoiding down 4 x. Then there is always the small chance the opps will
push and I will be oh so much happier trying to defend 5h than I am 4h.
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#11 User is offline   WesleyC 

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Posted 2014-December-01, 21:26

View PostArtK78, on 2014-December-01, 10:56, said:

I understand that the OP stated that the double of 4 is "takeoutish," but I don't believe that it should be. I could have a good hand with a couple of heart tricks sitting behind declarer. If I wanted to bid, I could bid 4NT.


Using exactly the same logic, double of a 4S opening used to be for penalties. However this century, people have come around to the idea that in terms of frequency and benefits it is more valuable to play the double as "take-out orientated values".

Going back to this hand; R vs W at MPs, reasonable opponents are not bidding 4H as a sacrifice, they are bidding it to make. So in terms of frequency and benefits, using double to show a shapely hand with extra values that wants to suggest bidding on but can tolerate a penalty pass if partner has a surprise in trumps feels like by far the most valuable meaning.
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#12 User is offline   WesleyC 

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Posted 2014-December-01, 22:09

View Postmikeh, on 2014-December-01, 13:15, said:

However, I see essentially zero chance that we can make anything, and some modest chance of a plus on defence. Further, I see little chance that partner will guess correctly should we make that bizarrely described 'takeoutish' double. [/rant]Wtf does that mean, when we have 4N as a clear takeout call?


Using double as 'take-out but able to tolerate a penalty pass' and 4NT as 'unilateral distributional takeout' is a perfectly sensible agreement. Holding a strong balanced hand, there is no need to double because if 4H is going down you are probably already on track for a good board.

In a similar vein, what does double mean in this auction?

All Vul

1H (P) 1NT (4S)
P (P) X

Last century it would have been penalties and I'm sure plenty of old school players still play it that way. However against sane opponents, there just isn't any value to this approach.

When I surveyed several top modern players, they all played double as some variant of "distributional take-out but able to tolerate a penalty pass".
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#13 User is offline   rmnka447 

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Posted 2014-December-01, 22:29

Pass.

If 4 makes, I'll tip my hat to the 4 bidder and get on to the next board.

I don't like holding so many in front of the 2 bidder. Partner and the 4 bidder both rate to be short. Unfortunately, the bidder gets to ruff after partner when both are out. At unfavorable vulnerability, the 2 bidder might also hold some additional asset, especially if holding only AJ10xxx. I wouldn't be surprised at seeing 7 to the A in dummy either.

Partner has been unable to act over 2 with likely short . Is a double for takeout or just card showing? Only the most experienced pairs might have a chance at discerning what the bid shows. If partner chooses to bid, holding a doubleton, even doubleton honors, in the only other suit partner is likely to bid doesn't seem good. Exchange the and , then double makes much more sense. Bidding 5 unilaterally seems more like a wild stab at a top then anything else.

Pass may not the most colorful action, but everything else seems fraught with a good chance of spectacular disasters.
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#14 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2014-December-01, 22:38

View PostWesleyC, on 2014-December-01, 22:09, said:

Using double as 'take-out but able to tolerate a penalty pass' and 4NT as 'unilateral distributional takeout' is a perfectly sensible agreement. Holding a strong balanced hand, there is no need to double because if 4H is going down you are probably already on track for a good board.

In a similar vein, what does double mean in this auction?

All Vul

1H (P) 1NT (4S)
P (P) X

Last century it would have been penalties and I'm sure plenty of old school players still play it that way. However against sane opponents, there just isn't any value to this approach.

When I surveyed several top modern players, they all played double as some variant of "distributional take-out but able to tolerate a penalty pass".

If you read my post carefully, I don't assert that the double 'should' be penalty, but that is one viable option. The other logical option is transferable values, which is my preference. However, you and I part company on the notion that partner has to take out the double unless he has a couple of trump tricks and, indeed, I think you are contradicting yourself.

You correctly, imo, noted that the red v white 4 bidder was bidding to make. What on earth makes you think that partner could hold a couple of heart tricks? That is one holding that is virtually impossible. So if you want 4N to be pure takeout and double to be takeout unless partner holds 2 trump tricks, you are wasting the double.

It is far better, imo, to play that double suggests that they rate to go down but that I can stand you bidding on an unusual hand.

You drew an analogy to a 4 opening bid. I am somewhat out of date, but certainly when I was playing high level bridge, double of an opening 4 was not penalty by any stretch but advancer was expected to leave it in with a flat, weak hand. Here too, double will and should be left in on many holdings, and as I tried to point our shape and honour location suggests this would be a bad thing. 4=1=3=5 would be a better holding, with the same values. 3==1=4=5 even better.
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#15 User is offline   GrahamJson 

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Posted 2014-December-02, 11:39

Pass. Is this a problem?
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#16 User is offline   The_Badger 

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Posted 2014-December-02, 16:37

Pass. The ops have freely bid a 23 or less HCP vulnerable game. What has partner got? Diddley squat. Ok, he could have a fit for your s, but there again he might not. The whole hand is highly distributional: you might get out with a -300 or -500 against their +620 but there again 4s could be one down, declarer relying on 2 quick tricks from the 2 bidder. With 3 aces missing, bidding 5 is a shot-in-the-dark. As for dbl or 4NT, don't even think about it!
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#17 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-December-03, 05:24

Thx all. Full hand:


I was North and decided to dbl. Pard took this as the 18-19 balanced with short hearts (a natural thing to think.. lol) and decided to pass.

It goes down on perfect defence: A, pard playing the queen (shows QJ), and trump shift. When declarer ducks a diamond, put pard in with J for a 2nd round of trumps. West can only take 6 hearts, 1 ruff, 1 spade, 1 diamond.

Defence didn't go like that, but declarer managed to mess up and go down anyway Posted Image (Score +95% of MPs)
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#18 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2014-December-03, 06:42

View Postwhereagles, on 2014-December-03, 05:24, said:

Defence didn't go like that, but declarer managed to mess up and go down anyway Posted Image (Score +95% of MPs)

What is your score for down one undoubled?
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#19 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-December-03, 07:17

Dunno, but probably over 75% anyway.
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#20 User is offline   Lord Molyb 

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Posted 2014-December-03, 13:10

View Postwhereagles, on 2014-December-03, 05:24, said:

Thx all. Full hand:


I was North and decided to dbl. Pard took this as the 18-19 balanced with short hearts (a natural thing to think.. lol) and decided to pass.

It goes down on perfect defence: A, pard playing the queen (shows QJ), and trump shift. When declarer ducks a diamond, put pard in with J for a 2nd round of trumps. West can only take 6 hearts, 1 ruff, 1 spade, 1 diamond.

Defence didn't go like that, but declarer managed to mess up and go down anyway Posted Image (Score +95% of MPs)

On that perfect defense, declarer can still play AJ and pitch a club (scissors coup). You need to lead a trump immediately so declarer will still have a club when you're on lead without trumps.

I didn't even consider declarer might have needed to ruff out a long side suit (diamonds) when passing.
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