[jallerton]

IMPs. Your side is vulnerable against not. The auction has got high quickly. What now?

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[lamford]

I guess that they are making and we are -800 or -1100.

[Jinksy]

Clubs seem to be behaving well for them, and I doubt the heart split will embarrass them, so I'll also guess they're making. I'm guessing we'll be more like -1100 or -1400, but I still like the odds.

[KurtGodel]

Quite cool that you can construct the hands so confidently from the auction. South must have something like - HJxx Axx AKQJxx possibly moving one of the diamonds into another one of the suits. I feel like p must have some shortage to bid 4♠, so it is overwhelmingly likely that it will be in clubs.

So all we lose is: at most one trump trick, at most two diamond tricks and a club. On a lucky day the queen of diamonds is onside, or in partner's hand. Partner might even have a club void. We may not have a trump loser either. So to me that looks like -1100 on a bad day, -200 on a very good day (probably just a dream). I like those odds, and am willing to pay off to South not having their bid once in a while.

I would guess we normally go for 800. Can't really see how we go for more than 1100.

[PhantomSac]

KurtGodel, on 2015-April-26, 09:40, said:

Quite cool that you can construct the hands so confidently from the auction. South must have something like - HJxx Axx AKQJxx possibly moving one of the diamonds into another one of the suits. I feel like p must have some shortage to bid 4♠, so it is overwhelmingly likely that it will be in clubs.

The problem is if partner has 4 hearts and the spade ace then 7H is down if that's the dummy.

[PhantomSac]

Even without the spade ace if he just has Txxx of hearts then 7H is down if he leads a minor (as he should).

Edit: And of course it's always possible that partner has the Jxxx of hearts, I don't think anyone would criticize GSF with the same hand Kurt gave with no HJ.

edit again: sorry I miscounted the tricks, obviously if they have the spade ace they just have 13 tricks. I thought they needed 2 ruffs lol. So partner needs Txxx of hearts and the SA to beat it (or Jxxx of hearts).

[gszes]

A rare case where the vul sac actually seems to make sense. It could work out poorly but I would be surprised if they are not making 7h well over 90% of the time (clubs breaking) and our max negative should be around 1100. We do indeed add some risk they may bid and make 7n but that is not a concern at IMPS. P may be hiding in the woods with a trump trick (they should not x for fear the opps will run to a making 7n) but unless it is a solid trump trick the opps will play p for the heart length if we bid 7s.

[nige1]

jallerton, on 2015-April-26, 05:23, said:

IMPs. Your side is vulnerable against not. The auction has got high quickly. What now?

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IMO Pass = 10, 7♠ = 8. Double = 6. Josephine strikes back!
Possible drawbacks of sacrificing include:

• You need confidence in opponents' bidding (e.g. 5N might have been intended as asking partner to pick a slam or make a graded response, perhaps distinguishing ♥AK from ♥KQ and ♥AQ to length)
• Partner might have slow trump trick ... or ... whatever.

[jdonn]

I think the estimates of how down we will go in 7♠ are about right at 1100, but that people are severely underestimating the chances that 7♥ is going down. We have a diamond holding and partner has a potential heart holding. I am not going to just guess and save them from their guess.

[PhantomSac]

Perhaps we should have doubled JOSEPHINE to suggest a desire to save, then leave it up to partner? Maybe that is too kenrexfordian though.

[rmnka447]

If 5 NT is the GSF, then South needs to have a high ♥ honor. GSF asks for partner to bid 7 with 2 high honors unless you play some graded responses to it.

I have some problems sacrificing at 7 ♠, so I'm a passer.

If the bidding is as "clear" at our table, then I'd expect our partners to be in 7 also. But surely our partners ought to at least be in 6, which risks an 11 Imp swing at most.

I'm not sure exactly what partner has bid 4 ♠ on. If partner has complimentary distribution, then the losses in 7 ♠ may be acceptable. But, in that case, shortness in a minor might portend enough length in ♥ to defeat 7 ♥. If partner has bid 4 ♠ on ♥ shortness, -1100 might be on the low side of the set we'll incur.

I share nige1's concern that 5 NT might have been misconstrued. That would be less so if the opponents at our table are a well established partnership of very good players.

If 7 ♥ goes down, I'm risking a potential big swing our way if our teammates correctly ascertain not to bid 7 (14 IMPs). Or, changing a no swing into a big swing to the opponents ( -50 and -1100 for 15 IMPS).

I think in the post mortem, it's easier to explain not finding the sac that gives away 10 IMPs, then taking a phantom sac loses 14 or 15 IMPs.

[KurtGodel]

PhantomSac, on 2015-April-26, 10:46, said:

Even without the spade ace if he just has Txxx of hearts then 7H is down if he leads a minor (as he should).

Edit: And of course it's always possible that partner has the Jxxx of hearts, I don't think anyone would criticize GSF with the same hand Kurt gave with no HJ.

edit again: sorry I miscounted the tricks, obviously if they have the spade ace they just have 13 tricks. I thought they needed 2 ruffs lol. So partner needs Txxx of hearts and the SA to beat it (or Jxxx of hearts).

Declarer could also have a seventh club. Or have KJ of spades = a double dummy trump squeeze.

edited: obviously double trump squeeze fails as the KJ of spades would need to be in dummy.

[echo25]

IMHO double is a joke.

[zillahandp]

7s no question

[manudude03]

It would be cool if we doubled and their trump suit was AK8xx vs QTxx, but I'm just bidding 7S.