[el mister]

Playing in a speculative 3NT contract, you need to bring in five tricks from a not-altogether solid club suit. All you have to go on is that RHO has opened the bidding with 1H, and received a weak raise from his partner to 2, which he put up to 3. A heart was led and you won it in hand - you have three outside entries to dummy.

♣876

♣AQJxx

First pass goes 6-x-J-10. What should you play next?

[helene_t]

Restricted choice says run a small card next. Empty spaces says play him for 10-9 and the empty space argument is reinforced by the weak hand having more non-honours. So it is very close.

[wank]

Where's the 5? If you don't have it, running the 7 would be playing for a grosvenor.

[el mister]

You have the 5 - ♣AQJ52 in hand

I had this hand in a recent game and was basically wondering how to interpret the play of the ten from LHO.

[kuhchung]

wank, on 2016-August-09, 07:08, said:

Where's the 5? If you don't have it, running the 7 would be playing for a grosvenor.

What a nit-picker!!

[MrAce]

wank, on 2016-August-09, 07:08, said:

Where's the 5? If you don't have it, running the 7 would be playing for a grosvenor.

[Stefan_O]

el mister, on 2016-August-09, 07:54, said:

I had this hand in a recent game and was basically wondering how to interpret the play of the ten from LHO.

[msjennifer]

Since only the club suit is shown,there can not be a sure shot way but to finesse the 7 next time.The phenomenon of restricted choice goes in its favour.But it depends upon who the LHO is and what is his usual style when defending.In a normal BBO game that's the play.I know only the great giants of bridge but if my LHO is someone like Hamman.or Garozzo(Sillafu),I shall be like the cat in the video as then whatever you play may turn out to be wrong.Anyhow, my answer is Same I.e. Finesse the 7.

[MrAce]

If we exclude the grosvenor comment and add 5 to South hand, best reply is given by Helene.

[1eyedjack]

The vacant space argument and restricted choice are neither exclusive to one another nor inconsistent with one another. The vacant space argument requires that you halve LHO's vacant spaces in accordance with restricted choice and having done so you arrive at the same odds as RC applied to a more brute force nCr + RC approach. Just as applying VS without RC arrives at the same odds as the nCr method sans RC

[GrahamJson]

I'm not sure that restricted choice applies here. It is only valid when an opponent has a choice of two cards to play. In this example LHO could have dropped the 10 from a holding of 109x, if he were good enough (so probably not applicable on BBO, especially if LHO claims to be an expert).

So overall a close call. I would probably run the 8 plying against most oppo but repeat the finesse against genuine strong players.

[shyams]

GrahamJson, on 2016-August-10, 03:25, said:

I'm not sure that restricted choice applies here. It is only valid when an opponent has a choice of two cards to play. In this example LHO could have dropped the 10 from a holding of 109x, if he were good enough (so probably not applicable on BBO, especially if LHO claims to be an expert).

So overall a close call. I would probably run the 8 plying against most oppo but repeat the finesse against genuine strong players.

Restricted choice does still apply.
If LHO had played 10 from 109x, when you begin to run the 8 next, the Queen will pop up from the RHO's hand. Then there is no decision to make

[The_Badger]

More nit-picking from The_Badger

What has gone on before playing this suit? Declarer holding up three rounds of ♥ with the Ace? It might make a slight difference as to how you play the ♣ suit on the second round. As for a Grosvenor, playing the 10 smoothly from K 10 would be sublime.

[GrahamJson]

shyams, on 2016-August-10, 03:42, said:

Restricted choice does still apply.
If LHO had played 10 from 109x, when you begin to run the 8 next, the Queen will pop up from the RHO's hand. Then there is no decision to make

Oops, it must be too early in the morning here. I need to wake up.

[Caitlynne]

Actually, you have not provided enough information for anyone to answer properly. While you have expressed dummy's entry status, declarer's outside entry status is unstated by also relevant.

There are, of course two alternatives after the first round play. One is to return to dummy and repeat the finesse against the King with RHO, playing LHO for T9 doubleton. The other option is to play RHO for K9xx and LHO for stiff Ten. But you cannot elect the second option unless declarer has the 6 spot to back up the AQJ AND unless there is a side entry to declarer's hand. Otherwise, RHO can simply cover with the 9 and his/her 6 will set up if you repeat the finesse. Even if you have the 6, you will be stuck on dummy after the third finesse, so you will need an entry to the closed hand to cash the two tricks established.

[nullve]

el mister, on 2016-August-09, 06:20, said:

All you have to go on is that RHO has opened the bidding with 1H, and received a weak raise from his partner to 2, which he put up to 3.

So the bidding started something like

(1♥)-P-(2♥)-P; (3♥)

where perhaps 1♥ showed 5+ hearts and 3♥ was a preemptive reraise?

Then suppose you can see from your own hand and dummy that opps have either 8 or 9 hearts together.

If 8, then you know RHO has only 5. But then he would not have enough shape to bid 3♥ with only a 4c suit (♣9xxx) on the side. So you should definitely not run the eight.

If 9, then you can assume RHO has 6. But with ♣9xxx on the side he would probably either have blasted 4♥ or made a trial bid (by asking for help in clubs, say). So running the eight seems wrong for that reason alone.

[aloman]

It's easy. If RHO started with K9xx, you can't win the contract. He'll just play 9 on the next trick and you'll get stuck in dummy. You need 5 tricks from this suit to make the contract, so you don't have entry to your hand.

[zillahandp]

Yes

[zenbiddist]

aloman, on 2016-August-10, 23:18, said:

It's easy. If RHO started with K9xx, you can't win the contract. He'll just play 9 on the next trick and you'll get stuck in dummy. You need 5 tricks from this suit to make the contract, so you don't have entry to your hand.

Very pretty logic