[smerriman]

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Any ideas how you're meant to bid this?

As an aside, would you play for the drop or finesse? (I assume drop is obvious, but I'm never entirely sure how to weight the probabilities in this sort of situation).

[helene_t]

Assuming the non-diamonds break 10-6, the finesse has a 10/16 probability. This is assuming that all shapes with a 7-card diamonds qualify so it's not entirely accurate but close enough.

The drop only fails when all hearts are with W. This has a probability of 10/16 * 9/15 * 8/14 = 0.21 so the drop has 79% chance. Add to this the chance of endplaying W. And if hearts are 3-0 the chance that clubs are 3-3 goes up.

So I believe you should play for the drop.

[nekthen]

While on the obvious, do cash the A♥ first.

[Cyberyeti]

 nekthen, on 2018-May-07, 02:26, said:

While on the obvious, do cash the A♥ first.

Actually maybe not, on a spade lead you give up the chance of ♣Jx with a void trump in the preempter's hand, is that more or less likely than his partner not raising with 3 diamonds to an honour and a void heart ?

[PhilG007]

 smerriman, on 2018-May-06, 17:00, said:

---

Any ideas how you're meant to bid this?

As an aside, would you play for the drop or finesse? (I assume drop is obvious, but I'm never entirely sure how to weight the probabilities in this sort of situation).

This hand would have been more difficult to bid had the North hand been concealed just as at the table. As it is the obvious contract is 6♥
As to the question of playing for the drop the old bridge adage of "8 ever 9 never" comes to mind. With 10 trumps the play for the drop is mandatory.

[Cyberyeti]

 PhilG007, on 2018-May-07, 04:19, said:

This hand would have been more difficult to bid had the North hand been concealed just as at the table. As it is the obvious contract is 6♥
As to the question of playing for the drop the old bridge adage of "8 ever 9 never" comes to mind. With 10 trumps the play for the drop is mandatory.

Yes and no, would you play for the drop if you knew from the auction one opp had 13 diamonds ? of course not, the question is how many do they have to have to sway that choice.

7 I don't think is enough to change the odds, you can use the Pavlicek calculator to work it out easily enough.

It's approximately 50:50 drop or finesse if another suit is 10-1 or 10-0.

[Tramticket]

I can't see us bidding this. I would be pleased to manage to bid to 4H. Maybe (3D), 3H, (Pass), 4H.

[Winstonm]

 Tramticket, on 2018-May-07, 09:41, said:

I can't see us bidding this. I would be pleased to manage to bid to 4H. Maybe (3D), 3H, (Pass), 4H.

My thinking exactly - what else can you do over 3D-3H with the North hand?

[rmnka447]

I agree it's hard to bid past 4 ♥.

With a 6 loser hand, ♦ void, and 8 ♥, it's hard to see South not bidding 3 ♥.

I'd mark this up as a hand where good bidding gets you to 4 ♥, but is likely to make 6. Bidding isn't perfect, just aimed toward getting you to good spots.

[ggwhiz]

I can only get there if west raises diamonds to 4 or 5 after a 3♥ bid.

[pescetom]

 Winstonm, on 2018-May-07, 09:48, said:

My thinking exactly - what else can you do over 3D-3H with the North hand?

Near the end of a tournament I might bid 4NT what the heck, then the void-showing reply will drag us into slam.

[Winstonm]

 pescetom, on 2018-May-07, 15:09, said:

Near the end of a tournament I might bid 4NT what the heck, then the void-showing reply will drag us into slam.

...and if you don't want to play again with that particular partner.

[smerriman]

Yeah, my thread title was a poor choice. Was mainly just wanting confirmation 3♥ was a normal overcall here.

[Cyberyeti]

 smerriman, on 2018-May-07, 16:01, said:

Yeah, my thread title was a poor choice. Was mainly just wanting confirmation 3♥ was a normal overcall here.

My first thought was to pass then come in with hearts later, the bidding is quite unlikely to die in 3♦, and I don't like showing a lot more defence than I have.

[cherdano]

 smerriman, on 2018-May-07, 16:01, said:

Yeah, my thread title was a poor choice. Was mainly just wanting confirmation 3♥ was a normal overcall here.

I admit my first reaction seeing the hand was "I might be defending 3♦ here!"

[sfi]

 smerriman, on 2018-May-07, 16:01, said:

Yeah, my thread title was a poor choice. Was mainly just wanting confirmation 3♥ was a normal overcall here.

It's the sort of overcall you have to do and hope you don't have to apologise after the hand. You are short in the opponent's suit and you have good playing strength - there are too many hands where partner will have to pass and you miss game (or slam, as in the actual hand).

I would bid 4D as North after the overcall, but can't see the bidding getting past 4H without help from the opponents.

[Tramticket]

 cherdano, on 2018-May-07, 17:28, said:

I admit my first reaction seeing the hand was "I might be defending 3♦ here!"

Yep, that's why I said "I would be pleased to manage to bid to 4H" - passing at the first turn looks like a very plausible option.

[P_Marlowe]

 Tramticket, on 2018-May-08, 01:15, said:

Yep, that's why I said "I would be pleased to manage to bid to 4H" - passing at the first turn looks like a very plausible option.

yes, ..., i would even say, that pass is the main stream option.
I guess, North needsto do something, with 15HCP, but xxx in the preemptor suit,
i.e. partner did not find a bid being short (or he is not short and is also looking at xxx)
and only 2 hearts makes it pretty hard to find a bid.

[Tramticket]

 P_Marlowe, on 2018-May-08, 01:47, said:

yes, ..., i would even say, that pass is the main stream option.
I guess, North needsto do something, with 15HCP, but xxx in the preemptor suit,
i.e. partner did not find a bid being short (or he is not short and is also looking at xxx)
and only 2 hearts makes it pretty hard to find a bid.

Sitting in the South seat, it is quite predictable that North will hold three or more diamonds and will have a problem. That is why it is often worth stretching to enter the bidding over a preempt when you have shortage in the suit opened. It would be interesting to see this as a bidding problem without the benefit of seeing both hands.

Edit: I have posted on Bridgewinners as a problem: https://bridgewinner...m-2-696hzpas8h/

[smerriman]

Oh good, so I'm not totally insane I actually did pass, West stayed quiet, partner tried a daring takeout double, and I jumped to 4♥ - but that was where it ended. In retrospect, knowing partner probably didn't have short diamonds, I think I got lucky and should have overcalled.