manudude03, on 2018-May-22, 18:33, said:
Small to the queen. East might have doubled with a heart void
You lead the
♥7 and west follows with the
♥6. The possible cases are:
- West
♥6 East
♥KJ - There is nothing you can do - so let's ignore (it's only about 4%).
- West
♥J6 East
♥K - You need to play the ace.
- West
♥K6 East
♥J - You need to play the queen.
- West
♥KJ6 East
♥Void - You need to run the seven.
If we assume that East has an eight-card spade suit (together with the two diamonds already seen), the odds clearly favour running the seven - East will be void about 58% of the time. but it is only about 19% chance for East to hold each of singleton
♥K or
♥J. Without any other information it must be best to run the seven.
What do we make of East's actions? I find Manudude03's argument, that East has an easy Lightner double with a heart void, very persuasive. But two things trouble me: (1) I wonder whether west would find the heart lead looking at
♥KJ6 and a longer club suit! and (2) If East makes a lightner double, North is likely to run to 6
♥, where he will be forced to get everything right. It seems possible to me that East was frantically trying to persuade his partner that he really did have a void, but his partner didn't give him a ruff when in with the
♦A because he had notice the lack of a double.
Maybe I'm over-thinking things but running the
♥7 might really be correct!?
[Edit: corrected typo].