Posted 2018-October-09, 13:42
First part: this looks to me like an easy 3N overcall. It comes with no guarantees but this is a bidder's game and we have a good playing hand. Sure, I may be sorry if LHO doubles, but he rates not to be able to do so. I'd bid 3N at imps, because the game bonus is too valuable to risk passing, and I bid 3N at pairs because the frequency of gain seems to me sufficient to offset the occasional disaster.
If I were to have passed, I would have done so in tempo. Consider the problem if you break tempo and pass (and I appreciate that you will have waited no matter what, due to the skip bid, so 'tempo' here is a relative term). Partner may not choose, from various LA options, any that was suggested by the BIT. Since he passed in first seat, it would be unusual for him to have a really clear non-pass action. Not impossible, but very unlikely, with the result being that your slow pass effectively bars him (actually, it is worse than barring him. If he takes action anyway, you get to keep that result if it is worse for you than passing would have been, and otherwise the auction is rolled back).
Having committed the pass, I now have to consider what to do over 4D. This is apparently not a regular partnership, so I don't have any clues as to how light he might be to open 1M with extreme shape. Could he have, as one example, KQxxx Axxxxx x x? I could...I would not open that hand, but devotees of such things as the Rule of 20 probably would.
How about KQxxxx QJxxxx void x? I'd pass with no concerns because, imo, this sort of hand is best shown by passing and then showing a 2-suiter, which warns partner that I don't have the defence that, imo, an opening bid should imply.
Bearing all this in mind, we are playing in a major. The idea of playing in notrump is silly. He won't usually have the entries to establish his suits and run them, since we have no length in either suit. And he will be short in both minors....if we play in notrump, we will probably be playing out of our hand a lot.
I'd like to be sure of finding our 8 card fit: I think that there is an excellent chance that he has some 6-5 major hand, and might be 6-6. If the latter, then either guess likely works, but if the former, then the 6-2 is likely to be superior to the 5-2.
However, I don't think I am quite strong enough to bid 5♦. RHO is unlikely to lead diamonds when his partner fails to double 5D, and so will lead clubs, which is not going to be best for us. I think I bid 4H.
Why hearts?
Partner will probably pass some 5=6 hands where, were the majors reversed, he'd open 1♠. If he opens light 1♠ he can rebid hearts twice and I'd know 10 of his cards. If he opens light with 1H, he may never get to bid his spades, and we may miss a 5-3 spade fit. Hence a good player will tend to have longer hearts than spades on this auction, rather than longer spades.
I may miss slam. Indeed, I may well take 12 tricks from my side when 10 or 11 would be the limit from his side. Picture KQ10xx QJ10xxx void xx on a diamond lead....whereas, as noted above, if I cuebid, RHO should hear the non-double and lead a club.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari