jillybean, on 2023-April-19, 06:49, said:
Here's the full hand
lead 3
♣
This is, imo, a terrible auction. There is no way that north should jump to slam. Bidding 3H described the hand reasonably well…we have an extra heart but that’s all. Partner, expecting six solid hearts and five to seven hcp outside the suit, chose to reject the idea of slam. 3N was the most regressive bid available. I can understand feeling that one has ‘extras’ for 3H, due to the extra heart, but the way to show that is to raise 3N to 4N, again describing one’s hand to partner. 4N says…I have a better hand than you’re expecting for 3H….what do you think?
Edit: on reflection, I think the slam is actually better than 50% by a slim margin.
On the club lead, west wins and returns a heart or a club.
On a heart back, pull,trump, then cross to the diamond ace. As it happens, that works, but the plan was to pitch a diamond on the club king and then take a ruffing finesse through west.this adds a tiny percentage to the chances, and that tiny percentage pays off here.
South has a minimum game force but has a decent diamond suit and controls. It’s tough to say whether south should move over 4N, because I can see all the cards now and thus know that the slam is about 50%, technically a tiny bit worse because if the very small risk of 5-0 trumps.
As for opener forcing to slam, picture KQx x KQxxxx KJx. Sure, it’s unlikely we’re off two aces but unlikely isn’t impossible once partner, knowing of our 3H bid, tried to shut it down in 3N. It’s not that 4N is keycard, but partner knows that aces are slam positive and no aces is slam negative….we didn’t open 2C, after al.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari