[shyams]

IMPs, neither side vulnerable, you hear opponents bid to 3NT. What do you lead? Bidding is standard --- 1♣ opening is 3+, 3♣ jump shows 16-19 HCP and a nice, rebiddable club suit.

---

Polling is anonymous. If found interesting, please add your comment with reason(s) for the choice of lead.

[thepossum]

My immediate thought was J hearts but then thought a small diamond but decided to write a small sim and ended up with the Ace of diamonds

[Tramticket]

Let's give partner a club stop (Qxx say) and one other honour.

We will need to take four tricks outside of clubs. Partner is more likely to hold five spades than five diamonds and even a four-card spade suit + the ace of diamonds might be enough. So there must be a case for leading spades. However there is a risk of blocking spades if we lead the ♠2, so the ♠10 is possible.

[Cyberyeti]

Tramticket, on 2023-August-03, 02:20, said:

Let's give partner a club stop (Qxx say) and one other honour.

We will need to take four tricks outside of clubs. Partner is more likely to hold five spades than five diamonds and even a four-card spade suit + the ace of diamonds might be enough. So there must be a case for leading spades. However there is a risk of blocking spades if we lead the ♠2, so the ♠10 is possible.

Prize for partner having long spades to the J9 and dummy havind stiff Q where you need to lead the K

[bluenikki]

Cyberyeti, on 2023-August-03, 03:56, said:

Prize for partner having long spades to the J9 and dummy havind stiff Q where you need to lead the K

Leading the king is what I thought, tho not because of the Q possibility. I just thought declarer was more likely to have the ♦ king than the ♠ ace.

But I wondered whether I'd have the nerve in real life.

[foobar]

♦A -- might be right, and gives a chance to switch in case it's wrong.

[shyams]

FYI: This was more a discussion than a solvable problem as the cards lay. Opps were loaded and there was no winning lead.



At the table, I considered ♠2, ♦3, and ♦A. Upon reading Cyberyeti's post, I realise that the spade King deserves consideration that I never afforded to that option.

I was curious as to what others thought because, like foobar, I too decided on the ♦A. Same reason -- if it doesn't work, I retain the lead and can find the best switch.

When we discussed at the table (it was a social game), I said a low diamond is probably worst. How wrong was I, it is leading the vote so far

[pilowsky]

shyams, on 2023-August-04, 03:29, said:

How wrong was I, it is leading the vote so far

Don't be too sure - one of the votes was mine.

[thepossum]

The people who voted hearts are keeping quiet. It was my first thought, and rates slightly higher than most
Always a chance of a couple of hearts
There isn't really much chance of much though is there?
I reckon the Spade people know their stuff too though - chance of most undertricks

[akwoo]

thepossum, on 2023-August-04, 18:48, said:

The people who voted hearts are keeping quiet. It was my first thought, and rates slightly higher than most
Always a chance of a couple of hearts

At MPs I would strongly consider a heart

[thepossum]

"Given the bidding and your hand, the contract is 3NT by your right-hand opponent (RHO), suggesting they aim to take nine tricks with no trump suit.

From the auction, it seems likely that your opponents have a lot of clubs, and your RHO also has some hearts. You don't want to lead a club since that's likely to be the opponent's long suit, and they could have several winners there.

Leading a heart might also be risky because your RHO bid hearts, indicating they have at least 4 hearts and LHO has supported. Even though you have JT94, there might be several hearts higher than the 10 and Jack in your opponents' hands.

Leading from your AQ83 of diamonds might be a good choice. If your partner has the King or a long diamond suit, you could establish some tricks in diamonds. An Ace lead is usually safe and can sometimes gain an extra trick by taking the opponents' singleton King off.

So, a diamond lead seems to be the most logical choice. Specifically, leading the Ace of Diamonds would be a good starting move based on the information you have."




"