[Cyberyeti]

 helene_t, on 2024-July-22, 05:41, said:

That's sorta the point, isn't it? K&R measures offensive strength, defensive strength is more relevant for the decision to double.

yeah, but here it could be really bad defensively too, any card dummy has outside the club suit could be bad for us if defending

[P_Marlowe]

 Cyberyeti, on 2024-July-20, 15:17, said:

I would have bid 2♣ hearts and another if I hadn't doubled.
<snip>

The question is, could it be 4-4, could the other suit be longer?
If you have to answer either question with yes, this would be another minus for introducing
the suits.
If you could at least show 5+ hearts and 4+?, you would at least make sure, that you end up
in hearts.

[Cyberyeti]

 P_Marlowe, on 2024-July-22, 07:24, said:

The question is, could it be 4-4, could the other suit be longer?
If you have to answer either question with yes, this would be another minus for introducing
the suits.
If you could at least show 5+ hearts and 4+?, you would at least make sure, that you end up
in hearts.

Could be 4-5, never 4-4, but partner will bid 2♥ with 3 unless 33(34), and over 2♦ I will bid 2♥ to show 5, so we will end up in hearts if we should get there.

[P_Marlowe]

 Cyberyeti, on 2024-July-22, 09:11, said:

Could be 4-5, never 4-4, but partner will bid 2♥ with 3 unless 33(34), and over 2♦ I will bid 2♥ to show 5, so we will end up in hearts if we should get there.

Ok, you end up in hearts, but quite often partner wont invite with only 3 card.
Getting 200 is hard, if you end up in 2H, it is easier if you double (or pass, -2 red).

[P_Marlowe]

<snip>

[P_Marlowe]

 Cyberyeti, on 2024-July-22, 09:11, said:

Could be 4-5, never 4-4, but partner will bid 2♥ with 3 unless 33(34), and over 2♦ I will bid 2♥ to show 5, so we will end up in hearts if we should get there.

Ok, you end up in hearts, but quite often partner wont invite with only 3 card.
Getting 200 is hard, if you end up in 2H, it is easier if you double (or pass, -2 red).

[Cyberyeti]

 P_Marlowe, on 2024-July-22, 11:11, said:

Ok, you end up in hearts, but quite often partner wont invite with only 3 card.
Getting 200 is hard, if you end up in 2H, it is easier if you double (or pass, -2 red).

Conceeding 180 or getting 100 when you should be getting 110/140 is just as bad

[thepossum]

It's a weak NT. I probably double

[mikeh]

Cyberyeti, on 2024-July-22, 06:55, said:

yeah, but here it could be really bad defensively too, any card dummy has outside the club suit could be bad for us if defending

Scared bridge is usually losing bridge

Let’s consider what we know. Opener has about 13 hcp. Yes, he may have 13 but on random deals one gets 13 points less often than one gets 12 and one gets 12 less often than we get 12…since the average hand is 10 hcp. So even assuming 13 is slightly pessimistic.

We hold 16… don’t worry about K&R valuation…16 hcp are 16 hcp for this analysis. Thus responder and intervenor can be assumed to hold 11 hcp between them. Give intervenor 6 hcp and we outgun the opps by 22-18 and we have a suit to lead.

Plus even if we can’t beat 1N, partner is allowed to pull with a weak hand and a long suit. So while there are no guarantees, the odds slightly favour our side owning the hand and that means that doubling will, in the long run, be clearly the best move. It beats pass by a significant margin and treating this as a heart-club two suiter is (imo) silly…jxxx? As a potential trump suit at the 3-level when intervenor doesn’t fit hearts? Now that is usually very, very unwise.

Thus…double could be a disaster but so too could be pass or an overcall….nothing is guaranteed in competitive situations. Winning players choose the approach that, in the long run, rates to generate the best outcome and don’t let fear of less likely poor outcomes to deflect them.

Frankly, imo, anyone who fails to double here isn’t likely to be a winner in strong competition.

[Bad_Wolf]

I have played weak NT my whole life. I really want my opponents to not double with this.

2H H+m is simply misdirected.

Pass will mostly fetch float or (2H)-(2S) back to you. Now what?

[P_Marlowe]

Bad_Wolf, on 2024-July-26, 15:19, said:

I have played weak NT my whole life. I really want my opponents to not double with this.

2H H+m is simply misdirected.

Pass will mostly fetch float or (2H)-(2S) back to you. Now what?

Pass.

But if they have a 5-2+ fit, you will face this problem as well after a double.
And partner wont have a T/O due to our shortage and also not a penalty double due to our
holding.

Pass wins, if they have a making 44 fit (mainly spades) on the 2-level, which they are
not going to find without the double, and go down in 1NT.
Pass wins as well, if partner is broke, he is a passed hand, afterall, although this has
no big impact, since only 12HCP are missing.

I think, you should double, if you play x as 15+, I think double is the percentage bid,
at the table I may start to think and have funny thoughts, but at the green table I think it is,
but if you downgrade the hand, due to viewing the hand as being too weak for a double,
reasonable, maybe way too pessimistic, you should pass.