[pooltuna]

campboy, on 2010-November-23, 10:34, said:

Looks about 40% to me.

there are plus %ages for the opps screwing up the opening lead but that is an uncalculable intangible

[WellSpyder]

Not sure why the % matters. What have pooltuna's examples got to do with whether the EBU regulation is sensible or not?

[pooltuna]

WellSpyder, on 2010-November-23, 10:39, said:

Not sure why the % matters. What have pooltuna's examples got to do with whether the EBU regulation is sensible or not?

Well the first hand is probably odds on to make 5♠ and the second one is certainly a big favorite to make 5♣ but as I interpret the comments here you are not allowed to open 2♣ with either (not that you necessarily would)

[WellSpyder]

pooltuna, on 2010-November-23, 11:15, said:

Well the first hand is probably odds on to make 5♠ and the second one is certainly a big favorite to make 5♣ but as I interpret the comments here you are not allowed to open 2♣ with either (not that you necessarily would)

There is nothing to stop you opening 5♠ on the first hand, and 5♣ (or 6♣) on the second one. But you are right that you cannot have an agreement in England that these hands should be opened with a strong 2♣ - primarily, as I understand it, because of the problems of misinformation in describing these hands as "strong".

[nige1]

campboy, on 2010-November-23, 09:18, said:

I really do not see a problem here. If a player makes a call which deviates from what he claims to be his agreement, then that is certainly evidence, albeit not very compelling evidence, that his agreement is not what he claimed. In the case of opening a six-count, though, there is almost certainly going to be substantial evidence from previous bridge that the player habitually passes (or opens 2♠ or whatever) with similar hands of the same strength or nearer in strength to an opening bid. In the original case it is unlikely that the player can provide any evidence that this is not his normal opening with that hand, though of course he should be given every opportunity to do so.

blackshoe, on 2010-November-23, 09:31, said:

The day players are required to maintain a database of everything they do at the table in order to provide "evidence" in cases like this is the day I quit playing. If you believe that this player most often in the past did something other than what he did this time, how can you possibly believe that he and his partner have a cpu? Or is this about something else (and if so, what)?

I agree with Blackshoe that few players maintain an authenticated database of their past auctions. Directors may have personal experience of the habits of some local players; but usually that information will be fragmented or anecdotal. if, in spite of its subjective nature, they decide to use that "evidence", how can they avoid a bias when dealing with strangers and foreigners, about whom they have no history.

[gordontd]

pooltuna, on 2010-November-23, 10:36, said:

there are plus %ages for the opps screwing up the opening lead but that is an uncalculable intangible

They might lead a trump picking up their partner's doubleton???

[campboy]

nige1, on 2010-November-23, 12:14, said:

I agree with Blackshoe that few players maintain an authenticated database of their past auctions. Directors may have personal experience of the habits of some local players; but usually that information will be fragmented or anecdotal. if, in spite of its subjective nature, they decide to use that "evidence", how can they avoid a bias when dealing with strangers and foreigners, about whom they have no history.

I think anyone who habitually opened 6-counts would become well-known very quickly. Anyway, the laws require TDs to collect and weigh evidence in order to rule. It is not the TD's fault if evidence is easier to find in some cases than others.

@Gordon: they might lead a spade allowing you to discard a loser on dummy's ace.

[nige1]

campboy, on 2010-November-23, 18:54, said:

I think anyone who habitually opened 6-counts would become well-known very quickly. Anyway, the laws require TDs to collect and weigh evidence in order to rule. It is not the TD's fault if evidence is easier to find in some cases than others.

What if, I open 1♥, "habitually", in third seat, on any Yarborough? (Assume that I don't advertise this ploy)

[RMB1]

nige1, on 2010-November-24, 12:16, said:

What if, I open 1♥, "habitually", in third seat, on any Yarborough? (Assume that I don't advertise this ploy)

The opportunities are probably sufficiently rare that no partner will notice and it will remain a psyche each time it happens.

[mjj29]

nige1, on 2010-November-24, 12:16, said:

What if, I open 1♥, "habitually", in third seat, on any Yarborough? (Assume that I don't advertise this ploy)

No, the correct bid is 2NT with a yarborough, 2S with a singleton beer card, 2H with a straight flush, 2D with 4 of a kind and 2C with 2-pair aces and eights. Surely everyone knows about Bacon Torpedo (slightly extended here to include all 5 two level bids)

Matt

[nige1]

mjj29, on 2010-November-25, 03:43, said:

No, the correct bid is 2NT with a yarborough, 2S with a singleton beer card, 2H with a straight flush, 2D with 4 of a kind and 2C with 2-pair aces and eights. Surely everyone knows about Bacon Torpedo (slightly extended here to include all 5 two level bids)

Bacon Torpedo said:

Bacon Torpedo is not licensed by the EBU for use in any events. The rules about systematic psyching, and lack of an anchor suit make it likely that anyone playing Bacon in an EBU event would be disqualified from the event and (forcibly) ejected from the EBU. This is unlikely to change in the forseeable future.

Years ago, on BLML, I advanced a similar idea. But mine was seriously intended

[twcho]

pooltuna, on 2010-November-23, 10:26, said:

It was a bootstrap calculation. The odds of partner having one of the necessary aces is 55%. The probability you can bring in ♣ for no losers is pretty high say 80%. The product of the two gets to 44%

And the chance of making 6♣ will be higher than 50% because it will be defeated only if the opening leader can find the correct ace(s) to cash.

That's a very intuitive hint by pooltuna. I have never thought that the chance of making slam holding a 11 semi-solid suit will be more than 50%.