[mikeh]

I would have been strongly tempted to treat this hand as a gf response opposite a 'disciplined' opener. However, the weakness of the heart suit, and the placement of my Aces in short, otherwise weak suits, and the vulnerability persuades me that an invite is all I am worth.

Partner's preference back to hearts is encouraging, but at this vulnerability, I think it not encouraging enough. If I were to bid game, 3N has more going for it than does 4♥.

Partner will always get us back to 4♥ if he holds 4 cards in the suit (still presumably possible if he has a true minimum), and 3N may be easier to make than 4♥ when he holds 3, and just possibly tougher to double when hearts break badly.....a good opp will double both contracts, but some opps wn't double 3N when they would double 4♥.

However, I pass.

[bluecalm]

Quote

invitational strength and a balanced hand.

Not really. As new suit is usually played as GF after transfer we are forced to bid 2NT on various 5-4-3-1's or even 5-5's and partner is well advised not to pass that even with 4-3-3-3 so "balanced" is not quite a sure thing.
Anyway we could have 8 or 9. Now we have 9 and information about 3rd heart. Is it enough for game ? If so, which one ?

[aguahombre]

From all I have read in this thread, it seems that the judgement call with that responding hand would be to use Stayman (as mentioned early by MrAce and me), then to bid game opposite four hearts..and either invite or bid game opposite fewer.

What I could not get from the sims thus far was: frequency of 15's with only two hearts which are favorites to make 3NT; and frequency of "accepting" NT openers with 3 hearts which would do better in notrump than in hearts. This type of sim analysis (in addition to the results already posted) would help determine whether to Stayman and invite or to Stayman and blast.

[gnasher]

bluecalm, on 2012-January-31, 11:18, said:

Anyway we could have 8 or 9.

What did you mean by "Invites are solid"?

[JLOGIC]

Inviting over 1N is ridiculous to me with this hand, but of course I'd pass now.

[JLOGIC]

I mean lol you are gonna get snap ripped almost literally every time trumps are 4-1 if you try bidding again on this auction, that's not great when you have 9xxxx.

[benlessard]

I think partner with a good 15 or 16 (4333) can bid 3m to send back the ball at us, so here I expect him to have a poor/medium 15 wich make it an easy pass. However this is a clear GF at Imps 2 aces and JTx are great cards.

[han]

Well I certainly don't want to get snap ripped so I pass.

[bluecalm]

Quote

What did you mean by "Invites are solid"?

That many 8hcp passes, obviously not all of them. 1NT is 15-17.

Quote

I mean lol you are gonna get snap ripped almost literally every time trumps are 4-1

I want to bid 3NT so there will be no trumps to split 4-1

[JLOGIC]

They are still going to double 3N when hearts are breaking badly if you bid 3N. I mean obv depends on opps but it doesn't take a genius to realize you are severely underpoitned and have a fit that breaks badly so you double.

[MrAce]

aguahombre, on 2012-January-31, 11:18, said:

What I could not get from the sims thus far was: frequency of 15's with only two hearts which are favorites to make 3NT; and frequency of "accepting" NT openers with 3 hearts which would do better in notrump than in hearts. This type of sim analysis (in addition to the results already posted) would help determine whether to Stayman and invite or to Stayman and blast.

The reason i choosed to blast was

1- Due to imps and seeing my hand better than invite

2-As i said in my first post and as Justin said, if i invite and pd accepts, i am taking way too much risk against good opponents (being doubled)

Whether this hand makes 2 NT or 3 NT and which is more often due to simulations is something that i dont really value much. As you probably know from my posts in the past about this type of invitations, that it is not even scientific for me and that people are over analysing their hands and that there are other factors which decides the outcome of the contract.

Otoh its not impossible but very hard to DBL when they bid 3 NT. He can be doing it with 9 hcp as well as 14 hcp flat hand, and u may see the purple card if you DBL. Because RDBL is percentage action if the expected outcomes are -1 = +1 . Doubling an invitation auction when u see their suit(s) is broken badly is usually profittable and the chances u get redoubled are slim to none.

[JLOGIC]

I would bid game rather than invite because I have a pretty reasonable 9 count opposite a partner who opened a 15-17 NT and rarely upgrades.

[ggwhiz]

I'm passing but it has nothing to do with the discussions above.

It has everything to do with my partner who accepts invites aggressively, especially at IMPS. A strong 3-card ♥ holding and a side doubleton are almost out of the question.

[aguahombre]

MrAce: I didn't mean "blast" in a negative way. I believe Stayman, then 3NT if no heart response is the way to go on this hand. I was just wondering whether sims would bear that out. It is the hands which would pass 2NT after the transfer which are of concern.

[MrAce]

aguahombre, on 2012-February-04, 14:02, said:

MrAce: I didn't mean "blast" in a negative way. I believe Stayman, then 3NT if no heart response is the way to go on this hand. I was just wondering whether sims would bear that out. It is the hands which would pass 2NT after the transfer which are of concern.

I know mate, i didnt think u said it in negative way and i wasnt trying to defend, i was just telling my opinion about why strategically it may be better to bid it even if simulations says otherwise, i may be wrong of course, i just wrote my thoughts.