[Furlan]

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Patton. West leads ♥4. Plan the play (and consider plausible alternative lines, if any).

[gszes]

Two main choices here===trick 2 spade J or trick 2 spade K.

It is highly risky to come to hand in either minor in order to play
trumps from hand. The spade J has a great chance of working
whenever rho has the spade Q (assuming they will duck)
this lop will come into grave problems if the spade Q is stiff.

The spade K at trick 2 will work pretty much anytime spades are 32
and also leaves us with serious play if trumps are 41 and rho has
the stiff Q.

[phil_20686]

Leading a top spade seems clear. Hard to lose more than one diamond and two spades.

Crossing to a club and taking the spade hook seems worse.

[rhm]

phil_20686, on 2012-August-19, 06:06, said:

Leading a top spade seems clear. Hard to lose more than one diamond and two spades.

Crossing to a club and taking the spade hook seems worse.

I beg to differ.
A black singleton, presumably with East, is equally likely.
Playing a top spade from dummy is fatal if East has a spade singleton other than the queen. The defense simply forces dummy with hearts
Claiming that you are safe when spades are 3-2 is also dubious. You could easily loose 2 diamonds and 2 spades when spades are 3-2. (Give East ♦KJT and West ♠AQx or East ♦JTx and you will have a nasty guess if West plays twice a low diamond)
Coming to hand with a club to run the spade 9 need not be fatal if East has a singleton club.
In fact unless East has the ♠Q and West the ♦K you will survive a singleton club with East
So coming to hand and running the spade 9 looks to me superior.
You will survive 4 spades with West unless East has the singleton spade queen.
Should West take the ace on the first round and force you in hearts you can come to hand in clubs again and repeat the spade finesse.
If on the second round of trumps East shows out, abandon trumps and start playing on clubs. West can ruff and play a third heart, which you will not ruff in dummy but discard a diamond.
Now you are in full control and make the remainder.

Rainer Herrmann

[SteveMoe]

Rainer, well thought through as always!

rhm, on 2012-August-19, 13:39, said:

So coming to hand and running the spade 9 looks to me superior.

Rainer Herrmann

One thought - I would lead a small ♠ first, as I might need the 9 to lead toward later. We are missing the AQ876...

If the ♠10 holds, I play a ♦ to the Ace and repeat the ♠ hook. If RHO shows out I can use ♣ with abandon.

[ggwhiz]

I'm playing the K♠ at trick 2

[JustTosh]

rhm, on 2012-August-19, 13:39, said:

I beg to differ.
A black singleton, presumably with East, is equally likely.
Playing a top spade from dummy is fatal if East has a spade singleton other than the queen. The defense simply forces dummy with hearts
Claiming that you are safe when spades are 3-2 is also dubious. You could easily loose 2 diamonds and 2 spades when spades are 3-2. (Give East ♦KJT and West ♠AQx or East ♦JTx and you will have a nasty guess if West plays twice a low diamond)
Coming to hand with a club to run the spade 9 need not be fatal if East has a singleton club.
In fact unless East has the ♠Q and West the ♦K you will survive a singleton club with East
So coming to hand and running the spade 9 looks to me superior.
You will survive 4 spades with West unless East has the singleton spade queen.
Should West take the ace on the first round and force you in hearts you can come to hand in clubs again and repeat the spade finesse.
If on the second round of trumps East shows out, abandon trumps and start playing on clubs. West can ruff and play a third heart, which you will not ruff in dummy but discard a diamond.
Now you are in full control and make the remainder.

Rainer Herrmann

[JustTosh]

rhm, on 2012-August-19, 13:39, said:

I beg to differ.
A black singleton, presumably with East, is equally likely.
Playing a top spade from dummy is fatal if East has a spade singleton other than the queen. The defense simply forces dummy with hearts
Claiming that you are safe when spades are 3-2 is also dubious. You could easily loose 2 diamonds and 2 spades when spades are 3-2. (Give East ♦KJT and West ♠AQx or East ♦JTx and you will have a nasty guess if West plays twice a low diamond)
Coming to hand with a club to run the spade 9 need not be fatal if East has a singleton club.
In fact unless East has the ♠Q and West the ♦K you will survive a singleton club with East
So coming to hand and running the spade 9 looks to me superior.
You will survive 4 spades with West unless East has the singleton spade queen.
Should West take the ace on the first round and force you in hearts you can come to hand in clubs again and repeat the spade finesse.
If on the second round of trumps East shows out, abandon trumps and start playing on clubs. West can ruff and play a third heart, which you will not ruff in dummy but discard a diamond.
Now you are in full control and make the remainder.

Rainer Herrmann

Sorry about the double post.

If east promises 6 hearts west cannot force north in hearts. Let's give west sp: A-Q-8-7. Sp K from dummy at trick two taken by west, heart forces dummy, sp J to west and a new heart forcing dummy's last trump. Now come to hand with a club, score the sp 9 and play a spade to west's 8 pitching diamonds from dummy. With no more hearts west must now give us the rest. So if east promises 6 hearts for his opening bid it's a close call what to do. My vote would go to SpK at trick two. However, if it's possible that east only holds 5 hearts I'm all in favour of your line.

[Furlan]

JustTosh, on 2012-August-20, 16:33, said:

If east promises 6 hearts west cannot force north in hearts.
(...)
However, if it's possible that east only holds 5 hearts I'm all in favour of your line.

You can safely assume that hearts are 100% to be 3-6.

[Furlan]

In the actual hand, if you play any spade on trick 2, both opponents duck. Go on from here.

[JustTosh]

Furlan, on 2012-August-20, 16:59, said:

In the actual hand, if you play any spade on trick 2, both opponents duck. Go on from here.

Surely east cannot have 4 spades after his 2H opening.

I can see no reason for west to hold up if he had q 3rd w or wo the A. So if spades split 3-2 east must have the Q. But if east has the Q why didn't he cover the first spade? Only reason must be he's void in clubs and wants a ruff. But with 5 clubs on west's hand with the sp A why didn't he try to give his pd a club ruff instead of leading a heart? For me ony remaining logical solution is that west holds A-Q-8-7 (or 6). He is hoping I'll continue with trumps and then clear trumps leaving me without chance as there's no cover for the hearts anymore. Therefore I play a club to hand and take the spade hook over west. When the sp 10 holds I run my clubs.

[rhm]

JustTosh, on 2012-August-20, 16:33, said:

Sorry about the double post.

If east promises 6 hearts west cannot force north in hearts. Let's give west sp: A-Q-8-7. Sp K from dummy at trick two taken by west, heart forces dummy, sp J to west and a new heart forcing dummy's last trump. Now come to hand with a club, score the sp 9 and play a spade to west's 8 pitching diamonds from dummy. With no more hearts west must now give us the rest. So if east promises 6 hearts for his opening bid it's a close call what to do. My vote would go to SpK at trick two. However, if it's possible that east only holds 5 hearts I'm all in favour of your line.

Maybe it was not clear what I meant.
Assume West to have AQxx in trumps and you start with the spade king at trick 2.
If West wins the first trump he needs to force the dummy with a heart.
The purpose is not to establish hearts for tricks but to kill the club suit and establish a third trump trick.
Of course if West wins the first trump, West will duck when declarer plays a second round of trumps, so on your line the spade jack would hold.
But it is probably best to duck the king of spades. In this case West will simply continue trumps if declarer plays a second round.
In both lines abandoning trumps and coming to hand twice in clubs to ruff hearts has a chance but this will not work if East has the king of diamonds. If West has the king of diamonds he will get end-played.
But choosing this line you could still go down when East has a singleton club and trumps 3-2.
And playing the king of spades runs the risk that West will win and switch to diamonds when he hold AQx or AQ in spades.

Coming to hand at trick 2 to run the spade 9 is superior. I do not see a layout where playing a low spade from hand is even better.

Rainer Herrmann